The crypto market remains on edge as traders await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision set for 2 PM ET. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP have seen moderate gains ahead of the announcement, with investors weighing potential price swings and buy-the-dip opportunities amid ongoing market uncertainty. Unlike previous bear markets, this cycle has featured shorter correction phases, followed by sharp price recoveries, making the current setup crucial for traders seeking optimal entry points.

Risk-Off Sentiment Dominates BTC, ETH, XRP Trading

Traders have pulled back as market volatility increases

Data from Coinglass reveals that traders in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have scaled back their derivatives activity over the past 24 hours. BTC and ETH trading volumes declined by 11% and 7%, respectively, while XRP saw a steeper 14% drop.

At the same time, liquidations have surged, with nearly $89 million wiped out across the top three cryptocurrencies. This has contributed to a risk-off sentiment, as many traders prefer to wait for the FOMC announcement before making aggressive moves.

However, Open Interest (OI) data tells a slightly different story. The total value of open contracts has risen by 1.42% for Bitcoin, 4.90% for Ethereum, and 1.49% for XRP, indicating that some investors are preparing for a volatile reaction post-FOMC.

On-Chain Analysis: Mixed Signals for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP

Binance funding rates and whale movements reveal a complex market outlook

On-chain data from Santiment highlights diverging trends among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP:

• Bitcoin: Binance’s funding rate has remained positive for three consecutive days, signaling bullish expectations among derivatives traders despite reduced activity. However, the supply of BTC held by institutional funds has been declining, indicating possible profit-taking by large investors.
• Ethereum: The amount of ETH held by whales (excluding exchange wallets) has remained stable, suggesting a lack of major accumulation or distribution ahead of the FOMC decision.
• XRP: Active addresses on the XRP network spiked on Wednesday, following a sharp decline on Tuesday, which may indicate renewed trader interest.

These mixed indicators suggest that Bitcoin and XRP may have a slight bullish bias, while Ethereum’s price could remain range-bound unless the market sees a significant external catalyst.

Trump’s Crypto Push and the FOMC Rate Decision

Could political and monetary policy shifts drive the next crypto rally?

Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, believes former President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance is playing a growing role in market sentiment. While the U.S. government has yet to officially adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, the idea is gaining traction.

Chen noted that Trump’s team favors stablecoins as a way to protect the U.S. dollar’s global reserve status, alongside legislative moves like the Stablecoin Bill making progress in Congress. Additionally, macroeconomic strategist Scott Bessent has hinted at an impending economic downturn, which could shape Trump’s strategy heading into the next election.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin may not drop below $70,000, but short-term dips could offer buying opportunities

Chen predicts that Bitcoin will remain above $70,000, with short-term pullbacks to $73,000–$78,000 being ideal accumulation zones. Looking ahead, she believes BTC could reach $200,000 within the next 1-2 years as macroeconomic conditions and institutional adoption improve.

Market Reactions to the FOMC Decision

A dovish Fed could fuel a short-term crypto rally, while a hawkish stance may trigger a dip

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, taking a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and strong economic growth.

Lee suggests that the crypto market’s reaction will depend on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s tone:

• If the Fed signals future rate cuts: Expect higher risk appetite and a potential short-term rally in Bitcoin and altcoins.
• If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance: The market could see temporary downside pressure, reinforcing tighter financial conditions.

However, Lee notes that Bitcoin’s growing resilience and increasing institutional support may temper any major sell-offs.

Expected Price Ranges Post-FOMC

Lee predicts that Bitcoin and Ethereum will trade within the following ranges after the FOMC announcement:

| Asset | Projected Price Range (80% Confidence Level) | | ------------------ | -------------------------------------------- | | Bitcoin (BTC) | $80,000 – $86,000 | | Ethereum (ETH) | $1,800 – $2,100 |

These estimates factor in potential macro influences, investor sentiment, and overall market liquidity.

Bitcoin’s Next Target: $87,000

Key technical indicators support a short-term BTC recovery

Bitcoin is showing early signs of a rebound, currently trading at $83,517. Technical indicators suggest a possible move toward $87,000, provided market conditions remain favorable.

• RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44, sloping upward, indicating growing bullish momentum.
• MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has been flashing green histogram bars for the fourth consecutive day, further reinforcing a potential uptrend.

Ethereum Outlook: ETH gained 2.39% on the day, approaching the psychologically significant $2,000 level. If momentum continues, ETH could test resistance at $2,100, representing a 7% gain from current levels.

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XRP Price Forecast: Potential 7% Rally

XRP eyes a breakout amid ongoing regulatory developments

XRP is currently trading near $0.2707, with potential for a 7% rally toward the upper boundary of a Fair Value Gap on the daily timeframe.

• RSI: XRP’s RSI has risen to 47, approaching the neutral 50 level, suggesting building momentum.
• MACD: The MACD trend remains bullish, supporting a gradual price increase.

Two key events could influence XRP’s price action in the short term:

1. Ongoing SEC lawsuit against Ripple – Traders are closely watching legal developments, as regulatory clarity could significantly impact XRP’s adoption and valuation.
2. Inclusion in the Strategic Reserve – Trump’s March 6 executive order regarding a blockchain-based financial system may have implications for XRP’s future role in government-backed initiatives.

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