Dogecoin's price struggled to gain momentum this week as market confidence in a potential DOGE ETF approval weakened. Declining odds reflect regulatory uncertainty and the absence of formal ETF applications from major financial institutions.

DOGE ETF Approval Odds Drop Significantly

Key reasons behind the declining approval odds

The probability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Dogecoin ETF dropped to 26%, down from 50% last week, according to Polymarket data. In contrast, Solana and Ripple ETF approval odds remain significantly higher at 76% and 70%, respectively.

The lack of formal DOGE ETF applications by financial giants has fueled skepticism. While institutions like WisdomTree have filed for Ripple ETFs, no similar moves have been made for Dogecoin.

Institutional Interest Remains Limited

Comparisons with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

Despite Dogecoin's $50 billion market cap, institutional interest in DOGE ETFs remains lukewarm. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have collectively attracted over $117 billion in assets, showcasing institutional confidence in these assets.

Experts suggest that a Dogecoin ETF could still gain traction if financial firms recognize its proof-of-work similarities to Bitcoin and if the SEC adopts a more flexible stance under Chair Paul Atkins.

Market Sentiment and Price Action

Analysis of recent DOGE price movements

Dogecoin's price has remained in a narrow range, hovering around $0.3382 after rebounding from a December low of $0.2635. Technical indicators suggest mixed signals:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching a breakout point.
• The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) shows a bullish crossover.
• The Accumulation/Distribution indicator indicates ongoing investor interest.

Resistance remains at $0.4836, while a drop below $0.2650 could signal bearish momentum.

Potential for DOGE ETF Filing

What needs to happen for approval?

The path to DOGE ETF approval hinges on key financial institutions filing applications with the SEC. Analysts believe that if the SEC demonstrates flexibility on crypto ETFs, applications for a Dogecoin ETF might follow.

A DOGE ETF would provide institutional investors a streamlined entry point into the meme coin market, potentially boosting liquidity and market stability.

Future Outlook for Dogecoin

Opportunities and challenges ahead

While the odds for a DOGE ETF remain low in the short term, Dogecoin's position as the largest meme coin ensures its relevance in the crypto ecosystem. The coming months will depend on regulatory developments and institutional interest.

If momentum builds, Dogecoin could target its previous resistance levels, but continued regulatory ambiguity may keep price movements subdued.