Nansen Research says macro developments this week may confirm a crypto bottom between April and June. As investors brace for volatility, optimism hangs on Fed guidance and key U.S. economic data.

Liberation Week could signal the bottom

Key policy announcements might provide market clarity

Nansen calls this “Liberation Week” as investors await U.S. jobs data, Fed comments, and trade policy updates. These events could stabilize risk assets and trigger bullish momentum if interpreted as market-friendly.

Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak Friday. If he emphasizes growth over inflation, rate cut optimism could rise—benefiting both equities and crypto.

Jobs data and tariffs add to uncertainty

Markets are watching labor signals and international trade tensions

March non-farm payrolls are expected between 139k–191k, with unemployment at 4.3%. A “just-right” result could support the soft-landing narrative.

Meanwhile, 25% auto tariffs and fears of retaliation weigh on risk assets. Negotiations with China, the EU, and Japan will be closely watched.

Bitcoin lags technically

Price still below 200-day average amid poor altcoin sentiment

BTC has failed to reclaim its 200-day moving average, while altcoins show bearish “death crosses.” This technical setup points to a fragile market outlook.

Selling pressure has eased, but new catalysts are needed to sustain any breakout—especially with equities still under pressure.

Nansen sees 70% chance of a crypto bottom

Institutional optimism hinges on macro stabilization

Nansen analysts believe there’s a 70% chance that crypto will bottom by June, assuming data trends favor growth and dovish monetary policy.

Investors are looking for signals, not certainty. This week’s macro news may offer just enough to fuel a relief rally.

Conclusion: bulls need macro help

Without positive data, crypto remains vulnerable to more downside

Crypto remains tightly coupled to risk assets. If Powell signals rate cuts and jobs data comes in balanced, markets could recover. If not, caution will dominate Q2.

A turning point may be close—but optimism must be backed by action.